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Student loan IDR vs refinance: monthly, the clock, and the 2026 tax bomb

Federal Direct loans are a product. A private refinance is a rate. Google “should I refinance student loans” treats them as the same payment box. After SAVE, they are a fork: RAP or IBR (income, a forgiveness clock, a tax bill at the end) versus a private recast (higher payment, no federal features, no tax bomb because you actually pay it off). The calculator uses your AGI and quote. Defaults are examples, not today’s servicer screen.

Updated 2026-09-08 · 11 min read · Educational, not tax, legal, or loan advice. Run the IDR vs refinance calculator. SAVE is vacated — this page does not invent a 2027 IDR name.

Three paths, three jobs

IBRRAPPrivate refinance
JobKeep federal; 20- or 25-year clockKeep federal; 30-year clockCut the rate; kill the balance
Payment10% or 15% of discretionary income, capped at 10-year Standard1–10% of AGI, −$50/dependent, $10 floorAmortizing quote you typed
Forgiveness240 or 300 qualifying payments360 qualifying paymentsNone
Tax at forgivenessGenerally taxable in 2026+Generally taxable in 2026+N/A — you paid it
PSLFYes, if qualifying employmentYesDies on refinance
Who can enroll (as of this run)Direct loans disbursed before July 1, 2026; lost if you take a new loan after thatOpen July 1, 2026; the IDR for new loansCredit, income, a lender

PAYE and ICR still exist for some pre-July 2026 balances and close no later than July 1, 2028. They are not modeled here. Parent PLUS is not RAP-eligible. This page is Direct loans versus a private recast.

Worked slice

$45,000 Direct, AGI $55,000, family of one

Example federal rate 6.39%, example private 6.00% for 10 years — not a live quote. New IBR: $259/mo, remaining $35,703 at year 20, 22% tax bomb $7,855, cash out ~$69,975. RAP: $229/mo, remaining $24,015 at year 30 after the interest waiver and $50 principal match, tax $5,283, cash out ~$87,783. Private: $500/mo, paid in 120 months, total $59,951, no bomb. Monthly cash-flow and lifetime cash disagree. That is the fork.

The usual “no”

Refi to shave 0.4% and keep PSLF folklore

Private refinance ends Direct. PSLF, RAP, IBR, and ED forbearance do not come along. A 0.4% cut that costs a $41,800 PSLF remainder (the 10-year IBR leftover on this slice) is not a rate win. Stay federal until you can name the features you are selling.

What is current as of 2026-09-08 (post-SAVE)

ItemRuleSource
SAVEVacated March 10, 2026. Not a payment option.ED, March 27, 2026
SAVE exit windowServicers began 90-day notices July 1, 2026Same / StudentAid.gov
RAPOpen July 1, 2026. 1–10% of AGI, $50/dependent, $10 min, 360 paymentsP.L. 119-21; CRS IF13075; ED fact sheet
RAP extrasUnpaid monthly interest waived on an on-time payment; up to $50 principal matchED fact sheet
IBR10% (new) or 15% (old) of discretionary income; 20 or 25 years; cap at 10-year StandardStudentAid.gov repayment plans
2026 FPL (48 states)$15,960 (1) / $21,640 (2) / +$5,680 each additionalHHS, effective Jan 13, 2026
IBR 150% of FPL, family of 1$23,940Same × 1.5
PAYE / ICRStill enrollable for some pre-July 2026 loans; eliminated no later than July 1, 2028StudentAid.gov / OBBBA
New Direct loan on/after July 1, 2026RAP or Tiered Standard for those balances — and it can pull older loans off IBRED fact sheet
IDR tax bombARPA exclusion ended Dec 31, 2025. 2026+ IDR forgiveness is generally COD incomeIRS Publication 4681
PSLF / work-requirementStill an exclusion when the discharge is for meeting work requirementsPub. 4681

There is no “SAVE 2027.” RAP is the name of the new income-driven plan. IBR remains for borrowers whose Direct loans were all disbursed before July 1, 2026. Type the rate on your Master Promissory Note and the private quote in your inbox. This classroom does not scrape a refinance marketplace.

IBR is discretionary income. RAP is AGI bands.

New IBR: 10% of (AGI − 150% of the poverty guideline), never more than the 10-year Standard payment, 240 qualifying payments. Old IBR (first loan before July 1, 2014): 15% and 300 payments. On the worked slice, AGI $55,000 minus $23,940 is $31,060 of discretionary income → $259 a month, under the $508 Standard cap.

RAP ignores poverty guidelines. CRS IF13075: AGI $10,000 or less is $10 a month; above that, 1% of AGI plus one percentage point per $10,000 increment, cap 10% above $100,000; then subtract $50 per dependent; floor $10. $55,000 sits in the 5% band → $229 a month with no dependents. Married filing jointly uses combined AGI — a real marriage penalty RAP only partly offsets if the spouse also has Direct loans.

The RAP interest waiver and $50 principal match are why the 30-year leftover on the slice is $24,015, not the $56,000 you get if you accrue unpaid interest like old IBR. The calculator models those two RAP features. It holds AGI and the poverty guideline constant. Real recertifications change the payment. Type a raise if you want that world; do not freeze a COLA we did not publish.

The tax bomb is back. PSLF is a different statute.

From 2021 through 2025, ARPA generally excluded student-loan discharges from gross income. That window closed December 31, 2025. IRS Publication 4681 is the cite: time-based IDR and RAP forgiveness in 2026 or later is usually cancellation-of-debt income. You should expect a Form 1099-C the January after the discharge year. At 22% federal, the IBR leftover on the slice is a $7,855 tax, not a parade. State tax may stack. Insolvency is Form 982, a facts-and-circumstances test, not a slogan.

Public Service Loan Forgiveness is 120 qualifying payments while working full-time for a qualifying employer, then the remainder is discharged. Pub. 4681 still lists cancellation for meeting certain work requirements as an exclusion. Teacher Loan Forgiveness is the other common work-requirement path. Do not refinance onto a private note and then “apply for PSLF.” The Direct loan has to exist.

The 0.5% DTI trap lives on the mortgage file

This is already built in the DTI calculator — we do not recast a mortgage here. Conventional underwriting often uses the billed IDR payment when it is above $0, and 0.5% of the outstanding balance when the billed payment is $0 or the loan is deferred. $45,000 × 0.5% = $225 a month, almost RAP on the slice. A $0 SAVE-hangover payment is not a $0 DTI line. FHA/VA are more likely to take the documented IDR amount. Ask the loan officer which rule they will run before you pay for an appraisal. Details: DTI guide.

Private refinance is a recast, not a coupon

A private note is an auto loan with a diploma: rate, term, extra principal. Credit-score and income quotes move weekly. The calculator’s 6.00% is an example, the same way the I-bond tool refuses to scrape Treasury. If you can pay the recast, you do not need IDR, you have no PSLF path, and the after-fee rate actually clears the federal payment plus the eventual tax bomb — then the math can favor private. Extra principal belongs on that note, or on federal loans you have already decided to amortize. It does not shorten a RAP 360-payment clock.

Do not skip a 401(k) match to crush 6% federal. A 100% match is not a student-loan APR. Order of operations still starts at the match — never skip it.

Free tool

IDR vs refinance calculator

IBR, RAP, private recast, forgiveness clock, tax-bomb flag, extra principal, bars, shareable URL. Rates are yours.

PayPal

Stay-federal or recast sequence

12 steps: NSLDS pull, SAVE exit, recert, PSLF file, tax-bomb calendar, DTI recast, one-way refi door.

Questions

Should I refinance federal loans?

Only if you can name the federal features you do not need, and the private quote wins after fees. One-way door.

What happened to SAVE?

Vacated March 10, 2026. 90-day servicer notices from July 1, 2026. Pick IBR or RAP. No 2027 SAVE.

What is RAP?

1–10% of AGI, $50/dependent, $10 min, 30-year clock, interest waiver, $50 principal match. Open July 1, 2026.

Is IDR forgiveness taxable in 2026?

Generally yes. ARPA ended 12/31/2025. PSLF is the work-requirement exclusion. Form 1099-C, maybe Form 982.

How is IBR calculated?

10% or 15% of (AGI − 150% of 2026 FPL), cap at 10-year Standard. Family of 1: 150% = $23,940.

What is the 0.5% DTI trap?

$0 IDR often counts as 0.5% of balance on a conventional file. Use the DTI tool. Do not guess.

Does extra principal beat IDR?

On a note you will amortize, yes — it is the rate, guaranteed. On RAP/IBR the clock is payments, not balance.

New federal loan after July 1, 2026?

Usually RAP or Tiered Standard only, including for older Direct balances. IBR eligibility can vanish.

Keep reading

Educational only. Confirm StudentAid.gov, your servicer, IRS Publication 4681, and a written refinance quote before you sign. Written by Thomas Sanders.